Four Reasons Why Ethiopia Wont Go to War Against Eritrea

Eritrean soldiers

Four Reasons Why Ethiopia Wont Go to War Against Eritrea

A lot of discussion has gone on in the cyberspace after Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn conducted an interview in which he warns that Ethiopia's policy has shifted towards Eritrea, and threatened his country is now determined to unseat Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki by force.

But as Fikrejesus Amahazion pointed out in a recent article, this new shift in policy isn't new at all. In March of 2011, while speaking to journalists at a press conference in Addis Ababa, the late Ethiopian dictator Meles Zenawi announced his 'new' shift in policy towards Eritrea, as well:

“We will work towards changing Eritrea's policies or its government. This could be done diplomatically, politically or through other means." He clearly implied war.

Eritreans know every few years or so, the belligerent regime in Addis Ababa beats the drums of war by making announcements claiming they have shifted their policy towards Eritrea. Since signing the Algiers Agreement in 2000, this predictable saber rattling has been a mainstay of Addis Ababa's policy towards Asmara.

In reality, however, Ethiopia's reckless policy has changed very little since signing the agreement. It's policy has been to train, arm and fund numerous terrorists groups to destabilize Eritrea, including al-Qaeda-linked groups such as the Eritrean Islamic Jihad Movement and the Red Sea Afar Democratic Organisation, the later being a purely Ethopian created terrorist group that seeks to give the Ethiopian regime access to Eritrea's Red Sea coast.

Ethiopia's latest bravado shouldn't be treated any differently than the usual saber rattling. After all, most of us know from experience that when a person warns someone they will fight them, that usually implies he or she doesn't want to fight at all. People who really want to harm someone wouldn't give the element of surprise away to their foes. Only the ones that desperately don't want to fight threaten others that they will fight. In poker, it's called bluffing. Among warring countries, it's called psychological warfare.

Since many people are giving their opinions on why Ethiopia will go to war with Eritrea, here are four reasons why Ethiopia wont go to war with Eritrea:

1. Ethiopian forces are stretched thin. According to TheReporterEthiopia, a regime affiliated website, Ethiopia has deployed over 10,000 soldiers in various countries including 4,200 troops to the Abiye region of Sudan, 4,000 soldiers in Somalia, and thousands in South Darfur under the auspices of a UNAMID peacekeeping mission. This figure is not including the tens of thousands of Ethiopian soldiers permanently stationed in the Ogaden, and Southern Ethiopia due to rebel activities from Ogaden National Liberation Front and Oromo Liberation Front. So even if it wanted to, Ethiopia does not have (at present) the man power to sustain a war against Eritrea.


2. Any invading military needs to pay its men to risk their lives to fight. Even Syrian jihadists, who profess they are fighting for their God, are being payed monthly wages by Saudi Arabia and Qatar to fight the Syrian regime. Unfortunately for Ethiopia, it does not have rich Gulf states to back their adventurism into Eritrea. Any war against Eritrea will have to come out of their aid budget from the West, which accounts for over 90% of the regime's annual budget. Adding to its financial woes, Ethiopia is also committed to spending 4.8 billion dollars on the Renaissance Dam's construction, which has been taking much of it's annual budget over the years, and leading to their soldiers not receiving wages for months on end.


3. Ethiopia going to war with Eritrea will ultimately bring Egypt into the conflict to some degree. In fact, there are reports indicating Egypt is seeking a military defense pact with Eritrea. In the current Ethiopian-Egyptian tension over the controversial Renaissance Dam, the Egyptians are probably hoping the Ethiopian regime attacks Eritrea so they can use the attack as a pretext to deliver surgical airstrikes to destroy the dam and Ethiopian air force bases. 


4. Ethiopian military is in bad shape, even by African standards. Over the last year alone, thousands of Ethiopian troops have defected to Eritrea, including five Ethiopian air force pilots. The Ethiopian military also lacks the discipline, skills or the will to wage war against Eritrea. Keep in mind, this is a demoralized Ethiopian military that's fresh off of a defeat in Somalia, in which one CNN anchorwoman described as, "Ethiopia left with their tails between their legs." This is also an Ethiopian military that can't even defeat rag-tag rebel groups such as the ONLF and OLF within its own border. So it's capacity to win a bloody, costly and protracted war against a larger and much formidable Eritrean military is out of the question.

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Related Reading:

1999 article showing Ethiopia's failed human wave attacks against Eritrea
http://www.theguardian.com/world/1999/may/18/ethiopia

Ethiopian General cries after the Eritrean military decimates his military
http://www.madote.com/2014/07/how-ethiopian-general-tsadkan-cried.html

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