Study Finds Eritrea Among Least Likely Countries to Experience a Coup

Study finds Eritrea among the least countries to experience a coup attempt in 2014 -  Picture: 2012 Independence Celebrations in Asmara 

Eritrea Among Least Likely Countries to Experience a Coup

Eritrea is listed among one of the least countries at risk of experiencing a coup attempt in 2014, according to a study conducted by political scientist Jay Ulfelder.

The study, which uses a mathematical model to predict the likelihood of coups in almost every country around the world, gives Eritrea less than 2.4 percent chance of facing a coup this year.

Regionally, the study ranks Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, and Ethiopia within the top 40 countries most at risk of a coup attempt to occur.

Ulfelder's model uses a dozen variables - from the type of political system the country uses to its infant mortality rate - to forecast the country's risk factors.

Click to enlarge. Data source: Jay Ulfelder coup forecasts for 2014. (Mas Fisher/Washington Post)

The 40 countries most at risk for a coup in 2014 (Jay Ulfelder)

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